The Future is Almost Here, Just as Soon as Everything Works Out Perfectly

AST SpaceMobile wants you to know they are building the first and only space-based cellular broadband network that works directly with your regular phone. That’s right, no giant antennas strapped to your roof, no clunky satellite handset from the 90s. Just you, your phone, and a few dozen satellites making magic happen. Well, eventually.

They’re telling investors they have a “fully funded” plan to get 45 to 60 satellites into orbit by 2026. The phrase “fully funded” does a lot of heavy lifting here, since what it really means is they just took on a pile of convertible debt, signed up for spectrum payment plans, and are banking on nothing going sideways.

Launches will happen every one to two months, which sounds wonderfully smooth if you ignore the whole messy reality of rocket schedules, weather delays, and hardware glitches.

The crown jewel of this quarter’s update is spectrum. They now have priority rights to 60 MHz of global S-Band and long-term access to up to 45 MHz of L-Band in the US and Canada. Spectrum is like beachfront property in telecom. Without it, your satellites are basically just expensive space art. They’re also bragging about “up to 120 Mbps per cell” which sounds thrilling until you remember “up to” is the world’s favorite way to not promise anything.

Partnerships? They have over 50 mobile network operator agreements covering 3 billion subscribers. If that sounds like the entire planet is lining up for their service, keep in mind these are mostly non-binding deals or preliminary discussions. The European joint venture with Vodafone, called SatCo, has 21 EU countries showing “interest.” Interest is free. Contracts are not. In India, they’re working with Vodafone Idea, which is currently busy trying to survive its own financial headaches.

The military probably liked it. They probably also like cake at retirement parties.

The US Government gets its own section in the cheerleading report. AST has now racked up eight contracts with them, which sounds substantial until you notice there’s no mention of contract size. These are likely test projects and demonstrations, such as the recent “first tactical non-terrestrial network” call using a standard phone. The military probably liked it. They probably also like cake at retirement parties. Neither means a mass rollout is imminent.

On the financial side, the company is burning through cash like a launch pad burns through rocket fuel. Q2 saw a net loss of nearly $100 million, with operating expenses climbing thanks to more administrative costs and engineering work. They highlight having over $1.5 billion in cash, but that includes proceeds from their shiny new 7-year convertible notes with a conversion price of $120.12 per share. A very confident number, considering the stock’s volatility.

Naturally, they show “Adjusted Operating Expenses,” which conveniently strips out stock-based compensation and depreciation. In a particularly creative twist, they even suggest that if you remove the costs of big transactions like the L-Band spectrum deal, the number would look even prettier. And why stop there? Remove everything else and they could claim to be wildly profitable.

The tone of the entire update is upbeat, with visuals showing neat timelines for satellite launches and global coverage maps that look ready to go. What they don’t show are the very real hurdles of global regulatory approvals, technical integration of spectrum bands, or what happens if launch cadence slips and cash reserves start to shrink.

So, the big takeaway?

AST SpaceMobile is on the brink of something potentially huge.
They just need to finish building dozens of satellites,
launch them on schedule,
integrate complex spectrum rights across continents,
convert expressions of interest into actual revenue,
and keep burning cash at a rate that doesn’t set the balance sheet on fire.

No big deal.