Welcome to IRIS², the EU’s attempt to turn geopolitics into fantasy football for bureaucrats. Picture it: national space agencies and corporate giants gather around a virtual draft board, picking satellites, orbital paths, and defense contracts like they’re assembling the ultimate dream team.

What started as a bold, glittering strategy to rival Starlink has become a spectacularly expensive version of space-themed improv, where every announcement is a touchdown dance without a game.

Amsterdam: the SmallSat Europe conference, filled with hopeful space types expecting updates on a sleek space age. What they got was a public diagnosis of failure. Sven Meyer-Brunswick stepped up and called it: IRIS² is dead in the water. And not in the poetic, “still has a chance if we believe” kind of way. More in the “we forgot to check if it could float” kind of way.

Then Daniel Biedermann took the floor to hammer home the fact that the thing was stitched together by people who didn’t think markets, logistics, or even the end users mattered much. The vibe was less “launch countdown” and more “let’s not speak of this again.”

Declan Ganley from Rivada Space Networks, who appears to have attended specifically to deliver a verbal backhand, called the whole affair a boondoggle. Something cooked up in boardrooms and bureaucratic echo chambers, fueled by fear of Elon Musk and a near-religious belief that sovereignty is best expressed via overpriced satellites no one asked for.

IRIS² has been on a journey worthy of its own tragic opera. From an original €6 billion, it now demands nearly €12 billion, presumably to cover the costs of ambition, indecision, and some very expensive PowerPoint animations. Airbus Defence and Space and Thales, once meant to lead the project, have backed away like seasoned chefs asked to garnish a rotting tuna steak. They’re still involved, but with the enthusiasm of people hoping no one notices they’re mostly not.

Meanwhile, Germany and Italy are quietly crafting their own alternatives, just in case this flagship project turns out to be an inflatable raft.

So where are we? We have a mission without a market, a budget with missing pieces, a team losing confidence, and a timeline based on hopeful guesswork. And yet the headlines march on, the press releases keep rolling, and the EU clings to its shiny, slow-motion trainwreck like it’s a badge of honor.

IRIS² is trying to look busy while the rest of the class hands in working projects. It’s grand ambition tripped up by infighting, funding gaps, and the baffling belief that having a plan is the same thing as having a product.

If this is how we build our future in space (politics first, purpose second) what do you think we’ll actually end up orbiting?
Sovereignty or just hot air?

Sound off.
Let’s see what constellation of opinions you’d build.