OW25: “Let me correct a misimpression…”

ACT I – Could this be a growth-enabling capital infusion necessity?

Earlier this week, Jean-François Fallacher, the newly anointed high priest of the Church of Eutelsat Group, declared, in front of a captive airshow congregation, without a hint of irony, that all is splendid. Because when your ship is cruising smoothly through golden profitability, what better time to bring up the completely unrelated notion of insolvency?

That’s not desperation you hear; it’s just a CEO gallantly “correcting” people who have eyes, calculators, and basic reading comprehension. One might wonder: if things are going so splendidly, why are you trying to reframe the problem like a third-rate PR spin doctor defending a doomed school musical?

“We are sovereign and European!” Please clap. Because nothing inspires confidence like shouting “Sovereignty!” while your competitor (Starlink) zips around you with thousands more satellites, government contracts, and a functioning cash flow. OneWeb is “sovereign” the same way a lemonade stand on the corner is “independent” from Coca-Cola.

“This is an opportunity for us…” definitely, because when your American competitor nearly pulls out of a warzone, that’s the kind of market gap every half-baked constellation dreams about. If your competitive edge is “we’re not the guy threatening to bail on Ukraine,” your business plan might be less visionary and more opportunistic vulture with Wi-Fi.

And let’s not forget, “only two broadband LEO constellations exist!” Great! So you’re the only other option. It’s like choosing between root canal and gallstones.

To anyone counting at home: the €1.5B is just the opening bid on a financing auction that will probably finish somewhere in the “mortgage your future” range. Eutelsat OneWeb replacement? €4B. IRIS²? €2B. Debt? €2.7B. That’s a lot of zeroes for someone with such confidence in their financial health. But don’t worry, the French state might bail them out, with strings attached, and possibly a little Eiffel Tower on the balance sheet.

When a CEO insists there’s no fire while nervously holding a garden hose and smelling of burnt plastic, it’s a clue. When a sovereign LEO constellation needs billions in hush money just to stay visible, it’s more than a clue. And when the only thing separating you from irrelevance is Elon Musk being moody, your long-term strategy probably has more plot holes than a Swiss cheese screenplay.

ACT II – A GREEK CHORUS

The curtain rises on Act II of the Eutelsat Drama, and wouldn’t you know it, our gallant hero Jean-François Fallacher has returned, not with a monologue this time, but an entire Greek chorus of capital increases, strategic roadmaps, and financial pyrotechnics that would make a hedge fund weep gently into its linen serviette.

Right, where were we? Ah yes. June 19th. The Paris Air Show declarations still hanging in the air like the scent of questionable optimism, and now Eutelsat steps forward with a delightful little morsel called a €1.35 billion capital raise. Contemplated, mind you, such a refined term, suggesting this is all part of a well-paced novella and not, say, a desperate clutch at solvency.

This fundraise, anchored, firmly, proudly, by the French State, Bharti, CMA CGM, and the charmingly acronym’d FSP, is being touted as a declaration of vision. Because when you need €1.35 billion just to stay on track, it’s strategic maturity. One simply loves a euphemism before breakfast.

Now, let’s discuss this magnificent proposition. A reserved capital increase priced at €4 a share, generously 32% above the 30-day market average. Because nothing says “we’re in control” like overpricing equity in a bear hug from the French government. Bpifrance is bowing out; the State steps in; the shareholder seat swaps like a game of musical chairs at Versailles.

This is a national commitment. European sovereignty. NATO resilience. One billion from the French Armed Forces, whispering “strategic” like it’s a charm against bad press. And should you feel the urge to question why this vision needs both public and private money, they’d like you to know they’re uniquely positioned, the only GEO-LEO operator in town, and thus obviously the belle of the broadband ball. Everyone else is just pretending to tango.

Revenue projections? Up! Margin projections? Also up! The capex required to realize it? Oh, just €1 to 1.1 billion in 2025-26 alone, plus €2 billion more for IRIS² starting 2027. But don’t worry, they’ll shave that debt down to a lean, mean 2.5x EBITDA by end of fiscal 2026, once you’ve all paid your admission, of course.

And now, to the footnotes! Where we find little mentions of Russian sanctions hurting their video business, 440 new satellites needed, and strategic “delays” in IRIS² that mean all of this money might be holding the company up until the real money arrives, hopefully before 2030.

So yes, dear friends, Jean-François assures us all is progressing splendidly. A fully European LEO constellation, backed by le tricolor, aiming skyward with a telescope full of buzzwords and a bank account full of taxpayer affection.

The next act? Possibly a stirring sonnet about spectrum rights. Or perhaps another round of share dilution, set to chamber music. One cannot wait.

While at Sea, Put a SOC or Four in it

Marlink decided bandwidth is risky and definitely less profitable. Who’d have guessed more data = more trouble? In April, they literally “launched Marlink Cyber,” because handing out cyber tools as add-ons just wasn’t flashy enough. Better to have a separate cyber darling with all the buzzwords. The magic trick? They scooped up Diverto from Zagreb and Port-IT B.V. from the Dutch waterways. Voilà: startup in a box, 150 experts, four SOCs, two-tone marketing spiel. Just add bureaucracy, shake, and investors think it’s organic growth.

Their selling point? “Phishing, botnets, MFA bypass.” Yawn. We’ve seen this on every other cyber vendor deck since 2010. But hey, at least they’ve got artificial‑intelligence‑powered hackers on stage now. Makes it novel. They lean hard in maritime, they’re already monitoring 1,998 ships, firing off 9 billion events. Big data, big problems, big price tags. LEO connectivity just means sailors spending more time on social media and randomly clicking links. Brilliant.

Also compliance certified wannabes: wielding UR E26 as if it’s Excalibur. Suddenly everyone has to dance to EU regs or face fines. Surprise, surprise, Marlink Cyber will help you comply, for a fee, naturallee.

So what’s their sticking point? Apparently some shipowners are slow to adopt. Imagine that, people resisting compliance until the auditor knocks. Meanwhile Marlink is increasingly confident the open door is their yacht ticket.

In short: a satellite company looked at scary bandwidth‑driven threats, stitched together acquisitions, and painted it all golden as “Marlink Cyber.” It’s not exactly revolutionary. But then again, when you brand your SOCs and weaponize compliance, everyone wants a front‑row seat, even if the show’s a rerun.

Piiiiils in Spaaaace …

Forget coffee in orbit. That’s old‑school. Varda Space Industries is cooking ritonavir crystals at Mach 25, casually saying “just another Tuesday.” Their W‑4 mission? A fancy way of saying, “We’re too cool for Rocket Lab, we’ll build our own spaceship, thanks.” Remember when startups outsourced everything? Not Varda. They’ve taken the Photon bus, thrown it out, and said, “Our turn.” It’s less vertical integration and more vertical flex. Investors must be thrilled: “Look, we can buy ourselves a spaceship.”

What’s really brilliant is the C‑PICA drama. NASA handed them a heat shield, Varda cloned it, and now they’ll test if the clone is as good. It’s essentially “heat shield reality TV.” Can Varda’s version burn as dramatically as the original? Tune in June to find out. And if you thought reentries were complicated, they’ve got an unlimited landing license in Australia. They’re basically saying: “We have a runway down under, bring us capsules like an orbital Postmates.”

The real showstopper: cancer‑fighting crystals and hypersonic weapon tech bundled into one mission. Pharmaceutical clients think they’re paying for drug discovery in microgravity. Meanwhile, the U.S. military gets stealthy plasma‑sensor data courtesy of NASA’s ride‑along. Multitasking taken to absurd heights.

By W‑4, Varda expects monthly missions. Because why wait? ISS shutdown? No sweat, they’ve got their own “microgravity as a service.” They’ve pivoted from humble startup to space‑age factory with a side of covert DoD capabilities.

Varda is playing 4D chess, building spacecraft, breeding crystals, and burning reentry shields, all while NASA and investors cheer. If orbit manufacturing hits its stride, expect a niche once limited to sci‑fi. And if all that burns up during reentry, at least it will be a fiery spectacle worth watching.

I Spy with my Little Eye … Something Starting with €

And finally, brace yourselves, because Europe’s finally getting serious about knowing what your garage looks like, within half an hour. At the June 12 Paris pow‑wow, European Space Agency – ESA’s boss Josef “Eye‑in‑the‑Sky” Aschbacher unveiled ERS/EOGS, a satellite sprawl set to gobble up a breezy €1 billion for phase one, and oh, what phase one entails. They’re talking “military‑grade” satellites with onboard AI, optical radar, and the ability to ping you like it’s 007.

So what’s changed? First, Europe finally realized maybe relying on NASA for space stuff isn’t awesome when the U.S. Congress decides to slice it like a budget-overweight zombie. Cue ESA scrambling to cozy up to Canada, Japan, India. Second, that steaming €23 billion three‑year budget, they want a 36 percent bump, sounds less like fiscal planning and more like space‑budget binge mode. And that’s only for starters. Word on the street is the EU is planning to drop another €60 billion between 2028–34. Who needs pensions, right?

It’s dual‑use deluxe. Once upon a time, Copernicus could marvel at glaciers melting. Now, satellites might catch tanks rolling or shady boat traffic. Airbus Defense & Space, Thales, SMEs, everyone’s invited to the party. They’re probably already drafting press releases.

Let’s not ignore the irony: Europe, long the laggard in space, is now sprinting to build a covert, smart, beefed-up satellite layer, and it’s budgeted for a bottomless appetite. Prepare for seamless image delivery (“Sir, we saw your farmer’s hedgehog in 27 minutes, badger, actually”.

And then some

SpaceX launched 28 more Starlink satellites from Cape Canaveral on June 18, 2025, expanding its LEO broadband network

SpaceX launched 26 Starlink satellites from Vandenberg SFB on June 17, 2025, continuing its rapid constellation build‑out

Rocket Lab added two new missions to its Electron launch manifest, scheduling the next lift‑off before “four days’ time” (targeting ~June 20, 2025)

Eutelsat Group and France’s Ministry of Armed Forces signed a framework for low‑orbit satellite services under France’s NEXUS program, announced Jun 18, 2025

European Space Agency – ESA seeks €1 billion to fund a dual‑use GEO/LEO intelligence constellation of 15–30 satellites, aiming for approval at the Nov budget counciil

Atlas‑V Kuiper KA‑02 mission (27 satellites) planned for June 23, 2025, marking the next wave of Amazon Project Kuiper’s LEO constellation

Rocket Lab’s Electron June 11 launch deployed QPS‑SAR‑11, the third radar imaging satellite in the iQPS constellation

And so, another week in satellite communications ends, not with a quiet fade to black, but with the deafening roar of rocket engines and the polite rustle of regulatory approvals.

From Starlink’s orbital spam spree to ESA’s billion-euro space wish list, and Eutelsat donning camo to flirt with France’s Ministry of Armed Forces, it’s clear that both the militarized skies and commercial ambitions are expanding faster than a Falcon 9 first stage.

Amazon’s Kuiper finally looks like it’s trading vaporware for vacuum, while Rocket Lab’s calendar resembles a caffeine-fueled game of orbital Tetris. As GEO players cling to relevance and LEO kids keep pushing bandwidth like it’s an interstellar drug deal, one thing is clear: the race isn’t just on, it’s in full burn.

Buckle up, space cowboys. The next week promises even more G-forces and geopolitical shade.