OW47: Orbital LAND-Grab

The week opened with Amazon’s constellation hitting a symbolic milestone: 150 satellites in orbit as of 14 November, according to coverage of the company’s low-Earth orbit broadband push, dubbed “Amazon LEO,” expanding its global high-speed internet reach. The announcement, dated 14 November 2025, makes clear that Amazon is no longer just flirting with LEO; this is now a real network, with the usual “bridge the digital divide” storyline as the official justification and “please don’t let Starlink eat the entire market” as the unofficial one.

From a first-order perspective, 150 satellites is still a fraction of Starlink’s orbital carpet, but it shifts Amazon from “future threat” to “operational reality” in every RFP where enterprises ask for “not just one LEO option, please.” The second-order effect is more interesting: as Amazon’s constellation grows, the multi-orbit narrative gets more leverage. Terrestrial operators and enterprise buyers can now play OneWeb/Eutelsat, Starlink, and Amazon off against one another, whether that’s for backhaul, mobility, or wholesale. In other words, the week made it that much harder for anyone to claim LEO is a one-horse race, even if one horse is still several laps ahead.

If Amazon is building the generic global backbone, Eutelsat is busy carving out regional fiefdoms. The company has been on a mini-rampage in Africa, and the deals crystallized over the last days are very much about monetizing that OneWeb LEO network as hard as possible. On 12 November, Eutelsat signed a multi-year, multi-million-euro agreement with Paratus to expand OneWeb LEO connectivity across Southern Africa, covering fixed sites and comms-on-the-move across South Africa, Angola, Namibia, Botswana and Zambia.

Barely pausing for breath, Eutelsat then locked in a distribution agreement with MSTelcom, a subsidiary of Sonangol, to bring OneWeb’s LEO connectivity deeper into Angola’s oil and gas, maritime and fixed-land verticals, laying out that MSTelcom will act as the national distributor of OneWeb services across enterprise, public sector and telecom customers.

Second-order implication: Eutelsat is very deliberately turning Africa into OneWeb’s proving ground for “multi-orbit wholesale” before IRIS² and other European frameworks fully kick in. While Starlink tries to brute-force its way into every market on earth, Eutelsat is going classic playbook: strategic national partners, regulated markets, and “we’re the licensed LEO operator here, thank you very much.” This is exactly the strategy you’d expect from a group that’s about to raise €1.5 billion with heavy French government involvement and has just shuffled its CFO to reassure investors about its long-term capital plan.

Meanwhile, Starlink spent the week doing what Starlink does best: launching more satellites and quietly redefining what “normal” launch cadence looks like. A Falcon 9 carried 29 Starlink satellites into low Earth orbit from Florida on 10 November, with another launch from Cape Canaveral on 18 November adding another batch of 29, both part of the never-ending Group 6 expansion.

The capacity impact is obvious, but the deeper takeaway is on infrastructure dominance and orbital crowding. Every new Starlink batch enforces a de facto standard for gateway density, ground station siting, and interference norms that later entrants must live around. The EU’s own IRIS² documentation explicitly calls out a future multi-orbital network blending LEO and MEO with secure connectivity for government and commercial users, which is basically Brussels saying, in polite policy language, “we will not be held hostage by a single US private constellation.”

So at the “who owns LEO” level, this week clarified three things. First, Amazon is now a real LEO threat, not a slide deck. Second, Eutelsat has chosen Africa as its early OneWeb monetization playground, leaning heavily on regulated, partner-driven models. Third, Starlink continues to set the pace, forcing everyone else to define themselves in relation to its scale, spectrum appetite and regulatory footprint. It’s starting to look less like friendly competition and more like the early acts of an empire-building saga where the smaller houses must either strike clever alliances or accept vassal status.

D2D steps out of the lab: Orange, OQ and AST turn the hype dial to “live network”

The real star of the week, though, was Direct-to-Device. For years, D2D has lived in PowerPoint purgatory alongside “space edge computing” and “AI-optimized orbits.” This week, multiple players put actual services, regulatory frameworks and serious hardware on the table.

On 18 November, Orange announced that it is becoming the first European operator to offer a live satellite SMS service using D2D technology, branded “Message Satellite” and aimed at customers in mainland France. The official Orange press release dated 18 November 2025 explains that when users lose terrestrial or Wi-Fi coverage, their phones can fall back to satellite to send and receive SMS and location coordinates, using direct-to-device links rather than specialized satphones.

At a first level, this is “just SMS,” which is easy to mock if you live in a metro area with five overlapping 5G networks. But for operators, this is huge: it shifts D2D from “maybe one day 5G NTN Release 17 something something” to “we sell this in our consumer portfolio now.” It also solves a nasty internal political problem. Instead of a satellite operator trying to bypass mobile networks and sell direct to end-users, you have the MNO in control, treating satellite as yet another RAN extension. That is the exact framing terrestrial operators have needed to avoid D2D being seen as a threat.

On 19 November, Luxembourg-based OQ Technology answered with something arguably more strategic: a successful emergency broadcast message sent directly to phones using its LEO satellites, heralded as Europe’s first direct-to-device message from a European operator. OQ plans to scale to around 30 satellites aimed at messaging-grade D2D services by late 2026, leveraging its existing satellite IoT expertise.

The obvious story is “another D2D demo.” The deeper story is sovereignty. Up until now, most D2D headlines have been driven by US-based operators: SpaceX/Starlink, AST SpaceMobile, and various US-backed spectrum deals. OQ’s demo gives Europe something to point at when it says it wants sovereign D2D capabilities that don’t rely entirely on US infrastructure or US regulatory goodwill. Tie that to the EU’s IRIS² ambitions and the European Parliament’s recent briefing on satellite connectivity, and you can see the outlines of a strategy where small LEO operators become specialist providers inside a broader sovereign connectivity fabric.

Then AST SpaceMobile wandered on stage in full “final boss” mode and announced BlueBird 6, its first next-generation satellite, scheduled to launch on 15 December from the Satish Dhawan Space Center in India. The official Business Wire press release describes BlueBird 6 as featuring nearly 2,400 square feet of phased array (the largest commercial communications array ever deployed in LEO) with 3.5 times the size and 10 times the data capacity of BlueBirds 1–5. AST expects hardware for roughly 40 satellites to be completed by early 2026, with five orbital launches by the end of Q1 2026 and a goal of 45–60 satellites providing continuous coverage over the US and select markets by end-2026.

First-order take: AST is moving from showing off heroic “we called a regular smartphone from space” demos to industrial deployment. Second-order: the company is doing this while still losing money hand over fist (Q3 results showed a loss of $0.45 per share on $14.7 million in revenue), worse than analyst expectations, even as the stock remains wildly priced on 2027 EBITDA dreams. This is essentially a high-stakes bet that investor enthusiasm for being “the D2D broadband network” will last long enough to survive execution risk, launch risk and regulatory risk. It’s like watching a commander order a full frontal assault while the quartermaster quietly mutters about supply lines.

All of this D2D excitement is useless without regulators deciding whether they are okay with handsets chattering directly with satellites on spectrum originally awarded for terrestrial networks. India’s Department of Telecommunications obligingly stepped into that role this week, with reports that DoT is preparing a framework for D2D satcom services and will seek recommendations from the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India on pricing and operational rules. The initiative is a way to bring connectivity to remote areas and disaster zones by letting phones talk directly to satellites.

Dig one level deeper and you see the real stakes. A proper D2D framework in India will force regulators to confront interference management between satellites and terrestrial macro cells, questions about which operators can participate, and how cross-border coordination will work when satellites beaming into Indian territory are controlled from abroad. At the same time, research briefings circulating this week (including a PR-Newswire-distributed analysis that frames D2D as poised to “redefine mobile-satellite integration”) point out that the addressable market is not just hikers and sailors, but also M2M, asset tracking, and emergency and governmental services, if price points and latency tolerances can be made realistic.

The net effect of the week is that D2D is no longer a fringe spec in 3GPP documents. It is now a commercial product in Europe via Orange, a sovereign demonstration in Europe via OQ, a looming terabit-class network via AST, and a live regulatory agenda item in India. The next battle will not be about “can we connect phones to satellites?” but “who owns the customer, who owns the spectrum, and how many satellites can you launch before everyone else files a complaint?”

GEO and VSAT refuse to retire quietly

While LEO steals the show, GEO spent the week doing what ageing empires do in every good drama: unveiling a new super-weapon to remind everyone that it’s still dangerous. Viasat announced the successful launch and initial signal acquisition of ViaSat-3 F2 aboard a ULA Atlas V 551 from Cape Canaveral. The official press release, dated 14 November 2025, states that ViaSat-3 F2 will provide services over the Americas and is expected to more than double the bandwidth capacity of Viasat’s existing fleet, with over 1 Tbps of Ka-band capacity and service entry planned for early 2026.

This has very real implications for VSAT and mobility markets. Cruise ships, business jets, remote mining sites and government networks still lean heavily on GEO for capacity and predictable coverage, with LEO currently a complement rather than a full replacement. By doubling GEO capacity over the Americas, Viasat is signaling that it expects sustained demand for high-throughput GEO VSAT links, particularly as IFC and maritime traffic continue to grow. LEO is fantastic for latency, but when you want a single big beam parked over a region with known demand, physics still likes GEO.

Eutelsat, for its part, spent the week reminding everyone that its GEO assets are still printing money, particularly in broadcast. On 20 November, Eutelsat and du announced the renewal of their collaboration to deliver broadcast services across the Middle East and North Africa, centered on the 7/8° West video neighbourhood, described in the press release as the prime orbital slot for premium TV distribution in the region, reaching around 95% of satellite homes there.

While Eutelsat’s investor narrative is heavily tilted toward OneWeb LEO and African enterprise growth, its broadcast positions like 7/8° West remain strategic cash cows and political assets. Broadcasters, governments and media groups in MENA are notoriously sticky customers, and renewing these long-term GEO contracts gives Eutelsat the EBITDA it needs to fund risky LEO expansion and CFO reshuffles. It’s the space-industry equivalent of an aging general keeping control of the capital while the young princes fight over frontier territories.

Over in China, GEO and high-altitude comms also got a sci-fi-flavored boost this week. Chinese state media reported the launch of Shiyan-21, an experimental satellite to test advanced communication systems, from the Xichang Satellite Launch Center. Coverage describes Shiyan-21 as an experimental platform for new satellite communications technologies, with little detail because of course. In parallel, reports circulated of a Chinese test using a 2-watt laser to establish a data link at around 36,000 km (essentially GEO distance) achieving around 1 Gbps, which some commentary framed as roughly five times faster than typical user-side Starlink speeds under similar conditions.

This is the kind of thing that makes GEO quietly dangerous again. If optical links from GEO can deliver gigabit-class throughput with highly directional beams and extremely efficient power budgets, the alleged “latency disadvantage” remains but the capacity and interference story changes. For VSAT-style fixed terminals and even larger maritime/aero terminals, that is very interesting. Combine a big GEO like ViaSat-3 F2 with future optical feeder links and you have a very different economics vs LEO for dense routes and hotspots.

For the VSAT ecosystem, the week’s message is simple: don’t write the obituaries yet.

MEO and multi-orbit: the moody middle child gets long-term commitments

The EU quietly reinforced MEO’s strategic role with its Galileo navigation system. On 19–20 November, EU institutions and Arianespace confirmed that an Ariane 6 rocket is scheduled for 17 December to launch Galileo satellites SAT 33 and 34 into MEO at roughly 23,222 km altitude. ESA and Arianespace briefings emphasize that these additions will strengthen redundancy and robustness in the Galileo constellation, ensuring continuous 24/7 navigation for billions of users.

This may look like pure GNSS, but the second-order angle is about infrastructure and ground segment. The same European industrial base building and operating MEO navigation satellites is also being asked to help deliver IRIS², the EU’s planned 290-satellite multi-orbital secure connectivity constellation, which will blend LEO and MEO to supply broadband to governments, enterprises and citizens. The more that MEO is normalized as “core” European infrastructure, the easier it becomes for MEO-based broadband and backhaul systems to claim political and regulatory support alongside LEO.

There’s also a market-structure story. A series of analyses this year asked whether MEO is poised for new growth as the satellite market shifts. The consensus is that MEO is particularly attractive for “thick trunk” traffic (things like major maritime routes, aero corridors, and cloud connectivity) where slightly higher latency than LEO is acceptable in exchange for fewer satellites, simpler handover patterns and well-established orbital regimes. All push toward a future where MEO is not a niche, but the backbone above which LEO sprinkles low-latency pixie dust.

Regulation, enforcement, and the moment the adults walk into the room

While engineers and business development teams were celebrating their D2D demos and LEO deals, regulators and governments had what might politely be called “a week.” Some of that was supportive: frameworks, funding, legal clarity. Some of it was the opposite of supportive.

In India, as noted earlier, the Department of Telecommunications made it known that it intends to craft a regulatory framework for D2D satcom, including pricing and operational guidelines, and will seek Telecom Regulatory Authority of India recommendations. The public narrative is about ensuring connectivity in remote areas and during disasters. The deeper reality is that India is not going to let space-based D2D ride for free on spectrum licensed to terrestrial operators without a clear view of who pays, who is liable and how interference is managed.

It’s particularly pointed because current D2D implementations lean heavily on using terrestrial FDD spectrum below 3 GHz, essentially reusing LTE and NR bands in ways that require careful coordination with ground networks. Nokia’s benchmarking and technical papers note that current D2D satellite implementations reuse terrestrial spectrum below 3 GHz for phone-to-sat links, while fixed satellite broadband tends to use Ku and Ka bands above 10 GHz. An Indian framework will have to decide how far operators can stretch those FDD allocations skyward, and under what conditions. That decision will matter not just to local players, but to any global D2D provider hoping to switch on coverage over India without triggering a diplomatic migraine.

In Europe, regulators spent the week sharpening their tools on orbital congestion and safety. A legal analysis of the draft EU Space Act highlights that the European Commission plans to develop methods for calculating congestion in LEO, MEO and GEO and for algorithmically choosing orbits based on recognized, state-of-the-art methods. In human terms, Brussels is preparing a formal framework for saying “no, you cannot just throw 30,000 more satellites into that shell and call it a day”, at least not without considering collision risk, debris and interference.

This matters enormously for LEO mega-constellations, but also for smaller NGSO and even some MEO systems. If congestion metrics become a formal part of licensing, operators may be forced to think harder about shells, inclinations and de-orbit plans. Those who have treated “space is big, what could go wrong?” as their main sustainability strategy may find themselves having uncomfortable meetings in Brussels.

On the enforcement side, the US Department of Justice provided the week’s best reminder that connectivity has a downside. Reports surfaced that the DOJ had obtained seizure warrants targeting Starlink satellite internet systems being used at scam compounds in Southeast Asia, particularly Myanmar, where organized crime groups are running large-scale fraud operations with forced labor. Coverage notes that US agencies are seeking to disable specific Starlink terminals and accounts that are critical to running the scams, following earlier investigative reporting on Starlink being used near the Myanmar-Thai border.

This is a wake-up call for all satellite operators about KYC, monitoring, and how “we just sell terminals; we’re not responsible for what customers do” is not going to fly in the long run. When your service can be used anywhere on the planet, including unregulated territories and conflict zones, knowing who your resellers are and how terminals are activated becomes a matter of legal and reputational survival. Every serious operator watched that DOJ move and quietly asked their compliance teams how exposed they are.

Ground segment, VSAT, and the people who make the magic actually work

While satellites and policy get the headlines, a quieter set of moves this week highlighted the ground and control systems that keep the whole circus running. Because as every spacecraft engineer knows, glamorous constellations die quickly if your ground segment is a science project.

CubeSpace, a South African specialist in attitude control systems and satellite control electronics, announced the opening of its European headquarters to expand access to its satellite control systems in the region. The press note, emphasizes that the new European base is meant to support the growing number of missions requiring reliable, proven control systems and to be closer to European institutional and commercial customers.

The deeper implication is that as constellations grow, the value shifts toward industrialized, standardized control systems that make operating dozens or hundreds of satellites boring instead of heroic. D2D, IoT, LEO broadband (all of these rely on precise pointing, reliable ADCS, and robust fault management). The more serious the traffic, think public safety D2D, government backhaul & mobility the less tolerance there is for “we’ll just tune it on orbit” as a strategy.

This is where VSAT is morphing rather than disappearing. Electronically steered antennas, clever waveform design, and hybrid modems that can talk to GEO, MEO and LEO are turning what used to be a static “dish stuck on a roof” into something closer to a programmable network element. Once you treat a VSAT or mobile terminal as software-defined, the line between “classical VSAT” and “fancy LEO user terminal” blurs quickly. Operators will sell “multi-orbit edge nodes,” but under the hood you still have RF front-ends, modems and link budgets doing the unglamorous work.

Where this all leaves the industry and what the next plot twist probably looks like

Satellite communications is settling into its long-term role as critical infrastructure instead of exotic tech. The players are still waving swords around, but the battlefields are increasingly about service integration, spectrum rights, regulatory risk, and who controls the combined terrestrial-space stack. As D2D matures, the question won’t be “can I send an SMS from a mountain?” but “under whose regulatory and commercial regime does that SMS travel, and what does that mean for roaming, lawful intercept, and emergency services?”

From here, the likely plot twists almost write themselves. Expect at least one operator to discover, the hard way, that using terrestrial FDD spectrum from orbit without iron-clad regulatory cover leads to awkward conversations. Expect more states to copy India’s move and start crafting specific D2D frameworks, because no one wants surprise satellite interference in their domestic mobile bands. Expect multi-orbit orchestration to become a buzzword as GEO, MEO and LEO operators all claim they offer “the best of all worlds” while trying very hard not to admit that they need each other. And expect at least a few smaller D2D or IoT players to be quietly acquired once the capital intensity of launch and regulatory engagement starts to bite.

For an industry that once defined itself by big dishes and occasional TV outages, that’s not a bad place to be. Even if it means spending the foreseeable future juggling terabit GEO beams, swarms of LEO craft, fussy MEO trunks, direct-to-device drama, and regulators who suddenly read all the fine print.

Somewhere, an old-school satellite engineer is looking at this week’s news, shaking their head, and muttering, “We used to just launch a bird and beam down TV.”

Progress, apparently, comes with a lot more acronyms and a lot less sleep.