Viasat calls it a launch year. The crown jewel is still in a crate and the big check lives in legal paperwork. Confidence arrives in a press release. Reality waits for a countdown and a bank transfer.

The first ViaSat-3 left a dent. Management now speaks like people who touched a hot stove. “Corrective actions,” “qualified hardware,” “shipment by September.” The range schedule belongs to someone else, so the calendar behaves like a suggestion.

The numbers bring a gentle smile that never reaches the eyes. Debt sits heavy. Capex trims but still eats. EBITDA refuses to lift. Free cash flow appears only in the second half, which somehow aligns with a satellite that finally works and settlement cash that finally moves. Strategy by horoscope, only with accountants.

Defense and Advanced Technologies serves as the adult in the room. Backlog grows, awards arrive, margins sag because royalties dried up and engineers kept building things. That is what programs look like before production. If procurement graduates them, the math improves. If not, another quarter of polite throat clearing.

Commercial Services tries a wardrobe change. Aviation looks lively because beams can be rationed in the sky. Maritime orders drift toward NexusWave. Fixed broadband shrinks with purpose, like a diet that finally sticks. Product revenue falls after the energy integrator sale. Nothing shocking, just a quiet retreat from the parts that bored customers and investors.

Ligado functions as a bridge with a toll booth. A fat payment later in the year, then a trickle with a little inflation. Guidance excludes it, which feels virtuous on paper. Liquidity models know better.

Arctic coverage plays the role of unexpected ace. High-elliptical Ka reaches where maps fade. Airlines that cross polar routes and agencies that live in the cold want links that do not flinch. That pitch sells without adjectives.

The networking stance finally sounds practical. Multi-orbit as an operating habit. Standards so roaming does not break. Partnerships where pride would be expensive. Less poster, more plumbing.

Execution ties the ribbon.
A satellite needs to leave Earth and behave.
A court process needs to finish so money arrives.
Defense programs need to mature so margins stop apologizing.
Aviation needs to keep adding tails.

If most of that lines up, the back half reads like stability rather than suspense.