OW26: Gravity Defying Subsidies

Eutelsat’s Great Bailout Spectacle:

Bpifrance just couldn’t wait to wave goodbye to Eutelsat. I mean, who wouldn’t grab a neat €4-a-share payday the instant things start looking iffy? If they’d really thought OneWeb’s LEO satellites were destined to topple Starlink, they’d have been throwing more cash at the problem, not slipping out the back door. But nope, 13.6 percent of Eutelsat? Sold. Pocketed. Ciao.

Why We’re Feeding a Strategic Zombie

Imagine this: a satellite operator drowning in more than €3 billion of debt, its OneWeb merger guzzling cash like a busted fire hydrant, and retail investors looking the other way in polite disdain. Yet here we are, French state ready to toss another €1.35 billion into the abyss, all because Europe insists on pinning its space-sovereignty hopes on a company that seems one hiccup from a meltdown.

Without France’s checkbook intervention, Eutelsat would face-plant spectacularly: stock prices in free fall, bonds crashing harder than a late-night TV host’s ratings, and those fresh batch of Gen 2 satellites left grounded for lack of fuel.

Along struts Macron’s favorite state vehicle, Agence des participations de l’État, with a hero’s entrance and a €716 million down payment. Call it sovereign swagger or desperate point-guarding, but that cash injection transformed a looming catastrophe into a temporary holding pattern. Suddenly, Eutelsat is Europe’s knight in shining armor rather than a lead balloon dragging the continent’s space ambitions into murky financial waters.

Of course, pouring more euros into Eutelsat comes at the cost of real, innovative projects. One could fund a half-billion-euro next-gen IRIS² constellation or sprinkle seed money over nimble satellite startups pushing genuine tech breakthroughs. Instead, billions vanish into a telecom dinosaur, kept alive by political theater rather than market conviction. A rescue that feels more like throwing life-preserver rings at a ship full of holes.

The political calculus adds another layer of absurdity. Admit that Eutelsat is a sinking ship and Europe would have to rewrite its entire IRIS² playbook mid-flight, unsettling contractors and sparking headlines about an “EU Constellation in Crisis.” Worse still, Macron might have to take a public bow for conceding that his flagship “space champion” was more of a liability than a triumph. Everyone hates an emperor exposed, so the easiest route becomes pouring more wine into a bottomless goblet.

Here’s the unvarnished truth: cutting the umbilical cord now makes the most sense. Let the market sort out the wreckage, steer fresh capital toward projects that actually inspire confidence, and free Europe from the illusion that Eutelsat equals space sovereignty. Of course, reality rarely makes for good drama.

If there’s no simultaneous “Plan B build” starting right now, led by Airbus/Thales/OHB/SES to quietly take over when Eutelsat collapses, then the €1.35B injection is strategic malpractice.

And if the real plan is to build that alternative behind the curtain, then let’s call this cash what it is: not an investment, but a time-buying smokescreen, and one of the priciest acts of strategic denial Europe’s satellite sector has ever staged.

And Just How Long Does This Lifeline Last?

Glad you asked. That €1.35 billion is more like a two-year band-aid at best. Here’s the quick math:

• Debt relief (~€500–600 million): Enough to quiet the crankiest bondholders for a stretch.
• Ongoing capex (~€300–400 million per year): Chips away at GEO renewals, OneWeb Gen 2 planning, and all the other shiny toys in the pipeline.
• Operational burn (~€200 million annually): Integrating OneWeb costs, network upkeep, salaries, espresso for the control-room crowd… it adds up.

In a best-case world (tight cost controls, market mood swings in Eutelsat’s favor), this buys about 24 months before the begging bowl has to come out again. In a more realistic scenario, think 18 months. And if OneWeb underperforms or IRIS² milestones slip? You’re looking at 12–15 months before the next crisis. In other words, late 2026 or early 2027 is when the fireworks really start, just in time for IRIS²’s eagerly anticipated rollout. Delightful.

Of course, by then, if there’s no fresh capital to launch Gen 2 sats, Eutelsat will be out of LEO gospel and effectively toothless against Starlink’s juggernaut. It’s the strategic equivalent of keeping a patient alive on ventilator support, technically alive, but no one’s betting on recovery.

We’ll look at IRIS² next … week.

This Week at NATO

At the Hague meeting, NATO didn’t just elbow its way past defense-spending drama, it also quietly rolled out a commercial space strategy, underlining satellites as mission-critical assets in future wars. Allies were encouraged to pour more of that freshly promised 5 % GDP into what’s being called “civil‑military space capabilities”. Translation? Yes, they want shiny new satellites to spy, communicate, and potentially zap enemy gear, all while calling it “civil” because warfare is so last century.

Space, Satcom and the New Frontier of Diplomacy

But wait, there’s more satellite intrigue tucked into the margins. Sweden used the momentum to sign a Letter of Intent with Ukraine on space-based communications, a sign that NATO is quietly wiring up Kyiv’s satcom resilience. Meanwhile, the Alliance reaffirmed its iron-clad Article 5 vow, signaling that space assets are now fully enlisted in collective defense.

So, between Trump jawboning allies to up defense spending to a majestic 5 %, the summit also lit the fuse on accelerating satellite arms, because nothing says “unbreakable bond” quite like militarizing the final frontier.

What else …

Here’s the unfiltered lowdown on June 20–27, 2025 in satellite comms, the stuff that actually matters, not the sugar‑coated PR drivel.

Spectrum Street Fights: AST’s Courtroom Capers

June 23 brought AST SpaceMobile its 45 MHz mid‑band sweetheart deal from Ligado, court‑sanctioned, yes, but don’t break out the champagne. This legal headline is about as useful as a paper mache rocket until they plug ground stations into the grid, nail roaming accords, and shrink a satellite dish down to “fits in your pocket” dimensions.

The reality? They’ve won the lottery but still owe rent on their ground segment.

Tiny Titans: SATMAR’s VDES Gambit

On June 21, Alen Space lofted a 6U CubeSat to back up coastal VHF messaging under the EU’s Ports 4.0 scheme. Finally, an upgrade beyond squeaky AIS chatter, if it works.

But real seas laugh at lab‑certified links: salty air, reflection hell, and security layers that add more latency than a fax machine. If SATMAR nails this, ports might drop their semaphore flags and carrier pigeons.

LEO Mania: Kuiper’s Growing Pains

Amazon’s June 26 Kuiper salvo pushed their satellite count past triple digits. Quantity is one thing; quality control is another. Early in‑orbit jitters and RF cross‑talk have insiders muttering “back to the drawing board.”

And with every operator crowding the same shells, the next big problem won’t be speed‑tests, it’ll be a debris field courtesy of poorly choreographed orbital ballet.

D2D Dishin’ Out Smoke and Mirrors

AST and Fairwinds wowed audiences on June 26 with direct‑to‑device demos on unmodified phones.

Reality check: that showcase ran on dedicated beams and firmware that doesn’t hit consumer handsets until Q4 ’26 at the earliest. Until chipset giants embed satellite‑grade sensitivity in silicon, this remains a boardroom PowerPoint, not your next group chat.

Telco‑Sat Hookups: T‑Mobile Meets Starlink

June 23’s T‑Mobile tweet promised SMS via Starlink in July and data in October. Nice PR stunt, but anyone who’s ever patched IMS cores knows billing engines and handset updates are more finicky than a French chef.

Customers expecting free satellite data will discover surprise charges that make roaming fees look charitable.

EU Regulation: OneWeb’s Eutelsat Dance

Brussels rubber‑stamped OneWeb’s merger with Eutelsat, conditionally, of course. Share spectrum fairly, don’t favor your own birds, and obey every non‑discrimination clause they can draft. The WRC‑23 lead‑up is already packed with bureaucrats squabbling over GHz like toddlers with sticky hands.

Under the Radar: Niche Ops Cashing In

While megaconstellations chase headlines, outfits like Iridium and Omnispace quietly rake in defense and aviation contracts. They don’t need millions of consumers; they just need a handful of fat government deals with SLAs that leave venture capitalists green with envy.

What’s Next …

Watch for AST’s ground station tender woes, collision‑avoidance advisories from the FCC, and at least one executive scrambling to explain why “free” satellite data isn’t actually free. Your inbox will flood with performance whitepapers, real‑world results finally separate the talkers from the doers.

There you have it: no fluff, no metaphors, just the gritty essentials that keep your satellite projects, or your nightmares, alive.