Europe, the land of culture, fine wine, and ambitious space plans that are always a decade away from reality. While SpaceX’s Starlink continues to dominate the satellite internet market, European leaders are busy daydreaming about “strategic autonomy” without the infrastructure, technology, or investment to make it happen anytime soon.
Enter Eutelsat OneWeb, the so-called “European alternative” to Starlink. If you listen to Eva Berneke, Eutelsat’s CEO, you’d think OneWeb is on the verge of replacing Starlink in Ukraine. Just one small issue: it’s not even close.
The Numbers
The numbers paint a brutal picture. Starlink currently operates over 6,700 active satellites, while OneWeb has just 600.
A recent Analysis Mason podcast revealed that Starlink provides anywhere from 23 to 490 times the capacity of OneWeb over Ukraine, depending on usage scenarios. This staggering gap isn’t as much about numbers as it is about network design.
Starlink’s steerable beams allow it to direct capacity where it’s needed most, while OneWeb’s fixed-beam architecture lacks the same flexibility. Even in the most optimistic scenario, OneWeb only has about five percent of Starlink’s capacity in Ukraine.
Imagining OneWeb as a Starlink replacement is like trying to swap out a Tesla Supercharger network with a handful of rusty extension cords.
Even if the capacity issue magically disappeared, there’s still the matter of getting terminals to users.
Supply Chain
OneWeb’s supply chain is a mess compared to Starlink’s. The primary supplier of OneWeb-compatible terminals, Kymeta Corporation, is based in the United States and provides distribution and service from teh US West Coast. Logistics alone would slow any large-scale deployment, but the real problem is that Kymeta is deeply embedded with the U.S. Department of Defense.
If the Pentagon prioritizes its own needs, Ukraine (or even the whole of Europe) could find itself at the back of the queue for hardware deliveries. Kymeta’s terminals also cost significantly more than Starlink’s, making large-scale adoption prohibitively expensive.
Intellian Technologies, the other major supplier of OneWeb terminals, doesn’t fare much better. Their units are multiple times the price of Starlink’s. Unlike Starlink Mini, a compact, battery-friendly unit that can be deployed easily in war zones, OneWeb’s alternatives are bulkier and far less portable.
Even if OneWeb had the satellites to compete, which it doesn’t, the lack of affordable, scalable, and easy-to-deploy terminals would still make it an impractical replacement.
Single Point of Failure
Beyond terminals, the architecture of OneWeb’s network presents another glaring weakness. Unlike Starlink, which has inter-satellite laser links allowing it to route data between satellites without relying on ground stations, OneWeb depends entirely on ground gateways.
This means that if a European gateway is destroyed or disrupted, OneWeb’s service in that region collapses. Starlink, on the other hand, can keep operating even if ground infrastructure is compromised. In a war zone, that kind of resilience isn’t just useful, it’s essential.
Despite all this, European leaders continue to push the idea that a Starlink alternative is just around the corner. The reality is far less inspiring. Even if you combine the satellite capacity of Eutelsat OneWeb, SES Satellites, Hispasat and every other European provider, they still don’t come close to matching Starlink’s coverage and throughput over Ukraine.
Time is not on our Side
The European Union’s much-touted IRIS² project, meant to provide a sovereign satellite communications network, won’t be operational until 2030. By then, Starlink will have launched thousands more satellites and expanded its dominance even further.
If Europe truly wanted space independence, it would need to invest heavily and immediately in an accelerated scaleable and future rpoof LEO satellite program. Instead, the continent is stuck in committee meetings and press conferences, congratulating itself on plans that are years behind schedule.
What about Elon?
Meanwhile, while Europe stumbles over its space ambitions, Elon Musk has his own set of problems. His involvement in the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), combined with Trump’s escalating tariff war and Musk’s declining public image, might force him to rethink his political alliances.
Musk is now caught between his business empire and the chaos of Trump’s policies. Tesla’s heavy dependence on Chinese manufacturing puts it directly in the crosshairs of Trump’s aggressive trade war with China. The Shanghai Gigafactory is critical to Tesla’s global production, and if heavy tariffs are imposed, costs will rise, profits will shrink, and China could retaliate with trade restrictions.
Musk has never been one to stay loyal to a political figure at the expense of his companies, and if Trump’s policies start to seriously hurt Tesla’s future, distancing himself might be the only rational move.
DOGE eat DOGE world
At the same time, Musk’s leadership of DOGE has led to widespread backlash as the department slashes jobs and funding across federal agencies. While some conservatives praise the efficiency drive, others see Musk as an unpredictable disruptor, and government agencies are beginning to push back. The real danger for Musk isn’t just bad PR; it’s regulatory scrutiny.
The very same government agencies he’s upsetting have the power to make life difficult for Tesla, SpaceX, and Starlink. If the backlash against DOGE grows, Musk may need to tone down his association with Trump to keep his companies in Washington’s good graces.
For now, Musk will likely avoid making a dramatic break with Trump, but subtle shifts could be telling. He may stay silent on controversial policies, engage with other political figures to hedge his bets, and reposition himself as a centrist business leader rather than a partisan figure. If Trump’s tariffs, the DOGE controversy, and government pressure start putting Tesla, SpaceX, or Starlink at risk, Musk will do what he’s always done: protect his businesses first.
Eutelsat’s Meteoric Rise Amid Geopolitical Tensions
In a striking turn of events, Eutelsat’s stock experienced an unprecedented surge, reminiscent of the “Gamestop effect,” driven by retail traders amplifying movements on a heavily shorted stock. Over four days, shares skyrocketed nearly 650%, reaching highs of €9.30 before retreating.
This surge was primarily attributed to speculation that Eutelsat could replace Elon Musk’s Starlink in providing internet access to Ukraine, especially after geopolitical tensions led to a pause in U.S. military aid to the country.
The Inevitable Correction
However, such rapid ascents often lead to swift corrections. On March 7, 2025, after peaking at €9.30, Eutelsat’s stock closed at €5.84. Nuff said.
Despite the temporary boost, Eutelsat continues to face fundamental economic challenges, including underperformance of its OneWeb satellites and pressure on cash flow due to significant investment needs.
Epilogue
At the end of the day, Starlink isn’t going anywhere, and Europe still has no viable alternative. While Ukraine continues to rely on Starlink’s superior infrastructure, European leaders can keep writing white papers about strategic autonomy that won’t materialize until the next decade.
The real question isn’t whether OneWeb can replace Starlink, it can’t. The real question is whether Europe will ever stop talking and actually build something meaningful.
If history is any guide, we’ll be reading another “urgent call for action” in five years while Starlink continues its global dominance.
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